Margin of Safety Explained
The margin of safety is the single most important concept in value investing. Benjamin Graham coined the term to describe the difference between a stock's price and its intrinsic value. The larger the gap, the more protection you have against being wrong.
Why It Matters
No analysis is perfect. Even the best investors are wrong 30-40% of the time. The margin of safety is your insurance policy — if you buy at a big enough discount, you can still make money even if your analysis is partially wrong.
This stock would need to fall another 37% from its NCAV before you would lose money on a liquidation basis. That is a substantial buffer against error.
How Much Margin is Enough?
Graham insisted on at least 33% (buying at two-thirds of NCAV). Buffett looks for "a dollar of value for 50 cents." The specific threshold depends on the quality and certainty of your analysis — higher-quality businesses with predictable earnings need less margin, while speculative turnarounds need more.